Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5e9a…ecbf sports 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-4%) realized −$44 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate87%62W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$50
crypto 3% −$5
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -35.6% -41.7% 33% 33% -41.8%
≤30d 71 -2.5% -11.8% 87% 8% -13.7%
≤90d 71 -2.5% -11.8% 87% 8% -13.7%
all 71 -2.5% -11.8% 87% 8% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 8% -13.7%
10% -20.2% 3% -21.9%
15% -27.9% 1% -29.5%
20% -35.0% 1% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses62 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage28d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Solana reach $90 June 15-21? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? No $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No $7 $3 −$4 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $10 +$9 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín: Both Teams to Score May 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 2.5 May 21 $10 +$1 +9%
CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5 May 21 $10 +$1 +11%
Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 1.5 May 21 $10 $0 +5%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 168.5 May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will CDP Junior FC vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? May 21 $15 $0 +0%
LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challen May 21 $10 $0 +2%
CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to Score May 21 $10 +$1 +7%
El Ahly SC leading at halftime? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will CD Cuenca win on 2026-05-19? May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 21 $20 $0 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) May 21 $10 $0 +0%
ITF Maringa: Ryan Augusto Dos Santos vs Sidney Emanuel Meneguetti May 21 $10 $0 +0%
ITF Maringa: Herman Hoeyeraal vs Salvador Price May 21 $10 $0 +0%
ITF Hurghada: Ivan Gretskiy vs Pranav Karthik May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Santos FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: Both Teams to Score May 21 $10 +$1 +7%
Santos FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 3.5 May 21 $10 +$1 +11%
Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 3.5 May 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5 May 21 $10 +$1 +8%
CA Boston River vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 4.5 May 21 $10 +$2 +24%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) May 21 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Orbit Anonymo vs BOMBA Team - Game 2 Winner May 20 $20 $0 +0%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Bushido Wildcats - Game 4 Winner May 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 20 $40 −$10 -24%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anhelina Kali May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5 May 20 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: GLORE vs Lodis - Game 2 Winner May 20 $20 $0 +0%
LoL: GLORE vs Lodis (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season May 20 $20 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner May 20 $20 +$1 +3%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Bushido Wildcats (BO5) - TCL Playoffs May 20 $40 +$3 +7%
Set Handicap: Semenistaja (-1.5) vs Zavatska (+1.5) May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Set Handicap: Barrios (-1.5) vs Pavlovic (+1.5) May 20 $10 $0 -1%
Set Handicap: Timofeeva (-1.5) vs Carle (+1.5) May 20 $10 $0 -0%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 20 $30 $0 +0%
ITF Gaborone: Rafael Giotis vs Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine May 20 $20 $0 +0%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Bushido Wildcats - Game 1 Winner May 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Bengaluru 3: Leo Vithoontien vs Petr Bar Biryukov May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Kathinka von Deichmann vs. Himeno Sakatsume: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $10 $0 +5%
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $10 +$1 +14%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Madelief Hageman vs Eva Kaliadina May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Deichmann vs. Sakatsume: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 20 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No $8 3m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No $11 1h
Will Solana reach $90 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 4h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $10 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $10 6d
Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $11 26d
Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 26d
CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 26d
Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 26d
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 168.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 26d
Will CDP Junior FC vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $15 26d
LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challen SELL Conviction 100¢ $10 26d
CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $11 26d
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 168.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 26d
Will CDP Junior FC vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $5 26d
Will CDP Junior FC vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $10 26d
Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $10 26d
Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 87¢ $10 26d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 26d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 26d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 26d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 100¢ $10 26d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 100¢ $10 26d
CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 93¢ $10 26d
CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 26d
LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challen BUY Conviction 98¢ $10 26d
ITF Maringa: Ryan Augusto Dos Santos vs Sidney Emanuel Meneguetti BUY Ryan Augusto Dos Santos 100¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.51 · official $32.42 (match) · 201 history records