Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5e9c…cd75
politics · 144 markets active 2d ago
4.5score
+$367,907 +129%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$372,385 · open −$4,926
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$21,291
Realized+$372,385
Unrealized−$4,926
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses93 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions61
Markets (closed)133 / 144
Avg bet$1,986
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 61 History 133 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$123
14 days+$123
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 53¢ 34¢ $8,857 $5,717 −$3,140 (-35%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 34¢ $8,028 $5,445 −$2,583 (-32%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $2,563 $4,048 +$1,485 (+58%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1,008 $2,012 +$1,004 (+100%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 15¢ 9¢ $2,398 $1,381 −$1,017 (-42%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 78¢ 77¢ $946 $930 −$16 (-2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 22¢ 15¢ $1,281 $860 −$420 (-33%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $323 $259 −$63 (-20%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $352 $248 −$104 (-30%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 97¢ $53 $55 +$1 (+3%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $109 $45 −$63 (-58%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $67 $43 −$24 (-35%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $42 $36 −$6 (-15%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $17 $29 +$12 (+69%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $4 $28 +$24 (+671%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $20 +$3 (+15%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-44%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+143%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $24 $8 −$15 (-64%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $19 $8 −$11 (-57%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+89%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+89%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+53%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Jun 10 $504 +$123 +24%
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025? Feb 15 $4 +$708 +17399%
Another US military action against Iran before 2026? Feb 15 $1 +$256 +25680%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Feb 15 $1,102 +$63 +6%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Feb 15 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Feb 15 $216 −$203 -94%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? Feb 15 $2,435 −$1,290 -53%
BOA launches a USD stablecoin in 2025? Feb 15 $128 −$58 -45%
Will anyone be charged for insider trading Trump tariff announcements? Feb 15 $30 +$60 +201%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $769 +$5,746 +747%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 21 $29 +$2,042 +7024%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 21 $681 +$1,064 +156%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $559 +$126 +23%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $668 +$2,360 +354%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Dec 02 $731 +$257 +35%
Will Zohran Mamdani win 4 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral G Nov 28 $78 +$68 +87%
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 15 $228 +$1,134 +498%
US Treasury transactions on blockchain in 2025? Nov 07 $41 +$40 +97%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Nov 07 $170 +$194 +114%
Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? Nov 06 $341 −$320 -94%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $100 +$696 +694%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $32,307 +$163,806 +507%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 01 $640 +$3,717 +581%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Nov 01 $36 +$219 +608%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Oct 31 $200 +$2,099 +1051%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 30 $840 −$247 -29%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 30 $113 +$591 +523%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Oct 30 $534 +$6,334 +1186%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Oct 29 $92 +$35 +38%
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025? Oct 29 $79 +$385 +486%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? Oct 29 $442 +$1,169 +265%
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? Oct 28 $162 +$424 +261%
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives in 2025? Oct 16 $966 +$689 +71%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Oct 16 $35 +$26 +74%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 16 $133 +$6,540 +4906%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 16 $186 +$7,653 +4123%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 12 $1,571 +$191 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Oct 12 $438 +$932 +213%
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? Oct 12 $33 −$23 -70%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 12 $2,233 +$66,165 +2964%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Oct 10 $156 +$1,419 +910%
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda in 2025? Oct 04 $73 +$71 +97%
Will TikTok be banned in 2025? Oct 04 $2 +$137 +6980%
Will Diddy be sentenced to more than 50 years in prison? Oct 04 $363 −$141 -39%
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 40 and 50 years in prison? Oct 04 $332 +$1 +0%
Will Elon register the America Party before October? Oct 04 $29 +$160 +558%
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 30 and 40 years in prison? Oct 04 $453 −$50 -11%
Will Trump announce withdrawal from Syria before October? Oct 04 $10 +$327 +3156%
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? Oct 04 $519 −$50 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 50% +$204,165
world 23% +$76,735
other 14% +$43,542
economics 10% +$42,229
tech 2% +$729
sports 0% +$18
finance 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 2d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 49d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 49d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 50d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 50d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 50d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 50d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 50d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 50d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 50d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 64d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 64d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 102d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 46¢ $58 105d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 106d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 48¢ $51 112d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 46¢ $3 116d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 46¢ $9 116d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 46¢ $5 116d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 46¢ $28 116d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 45¢ $250 117d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 83¢ $53 117d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 127d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 139d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $461 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+378.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +24.3% +12.5% 100% 100% +12.5%
≤30d 1 +24.3% +12.5% 100% 100% +12.5%
≤90d 1 +24.3% +12.5% 100% 100% +12.5%
all 133 +428.8% +378.4% 70% 62% +138.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +378.4% 62% +138.9%
10% ← realistic here +332.6% 59% +116.1%
15% +290.8% 53% +95.2%
20% +252.5% 49% +76.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,290.75 · official $21,293.60 (match) · 3500 history records