Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5E 0x5e9e…0a9a weather 295 markets active 6h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%88W / 197L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$34
14 days+$33
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -21.2% -28.7% 30% 29% -17.2%
≤30d 231 -0.0% -9.5% 32% 31% -9.1%
≤90d 285 -0.8% -10.3% 31% 30% -9.5%
all 285 -0.8% -10.3% 31% 30% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 30% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 30% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 28% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 28% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses88 / 197
Open positions10
Markets (closed)285 / 295
History coverage42d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+20%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? Yes 43¢ 82¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+91%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Yes 29¢ 52¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+78%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 28¢ 31¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 18? Yes 23¢ 25¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Yes 35¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? Yes 19¢ 52¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+171%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+41%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? Yes 20¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 192 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 +$15 +500%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +112%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $3 +$4 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +243%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$14 +138%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 +$2 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +136%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$11 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +162%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $6 +$9 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $3 +$3 +107%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 6h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY Yes 23¢ $3 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 9¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 19¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 33h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY Yes 19¢ $2 34h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY Yes 19¢ $0 34h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY Yes 19¢ $0 35h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY Yes 19¢ $0 35h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY Yes 19¢ $0 35h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY Yes 18¢ $0 39h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 41h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL Yes 96¢ $21 41h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 45¢ $3 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.40 · official $42.22 (match) · 647 history records