Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5E 0x5ea7…f90c other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$102 (+46%) realized +$108 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$105
sports 36% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +37.9% +24.8% 67% 67% +18.8%
≤30d 7 +44.3% +30.6% 71% 71% +23.8%
≤90d 7 +44.3% +30.6% 71% 71% +23.8%
all 7 +44.3% +30.6% 71% 71% +23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.6% 71% +23.8%
10% +18.1% 71% +12.0%
15% +6.7% 71% +1.1%
20% -3.8% 57% -8.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$29 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage30d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 54¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $30 +$20 +65%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$39 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$38 +188%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul: Both Teams to Score May 25 $20 +$17 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $30 9h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $28 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 46h
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $20 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.60 · official $23.60 (match) · 13 history records