Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5ea8…9e5f
crypto · 1283 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$914 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$928 · open +$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$2,300
Realized−$928
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses713 / 552
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1265 / 1283
History coverage234d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 18 History 1265 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$254
7 days−$49
14 days+$332
30 days+$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 87¢ 97¢ $520 $580 +$61 (+12%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 87¢ 97¢ $346 $388 +$42 (+12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 87¢ 57¢ $316 $209 −$107 (-34%)
Nathan Saliba: 2+ goals No 98¢ 96¢ $176 $172 −$4 (-3%)
Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots No 98¢ 77¢ $125 $98 −$27 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 71¢ 56¢ $106 $84 −$22 (-20%)
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 94¢ $56 $80 +$23 (+41%)
Alphonso Davies: 1+ assists No 98¢ 96¢ $67 $65 −$2 (-2%)
Alphonso Davies: 2+ shots No 97¢ 97¢ $63 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Jonathan Osorio: 2+ goals No 98¢ 97¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 78¢ $71 $62 −$9 (-12%)
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 51¢ 93¢ $30 $56 +$25 (+84%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 88¢ 90¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 84¢ 84¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 98¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+68%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? No 73¢ 88¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+21%)
Will any AI model reach 1540 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 78¢ $11 $16 +$4 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Vladimír Darida: 4+ shots Jun 12 $22 +$1 +5%
Jan Kuchta: 5+ shots Jun 12 $24 +$1 +4%
Bae Junho: 1+ shots Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $43 +$7 +17%
Lee Donggyeong: 1+ assists Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Bae Junho: 1+ assists Jun 12 $89 +$6 +6%
Jan Kuchta: 1+ assists Jun 12 $85 +$5 +6%
Denis Višinský: 1+ assists Jun 12 $99 +$6 +6%
Kim Jingyu: 1+ goals Jun 12 $35 +$1 +4%
Jan Kuchta: 2+ Goals Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Lee Donggyeong: 3+ goals Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Vladimír Darida: 2+ goals Jun 12 $54 +$1 +2%
Brian Gutiérrez: 5+ shots Jun 12 $43 +$2 +4%
Lyle Foster: 5+ shots Jun 11 $52 +$2 +5%
Erik Lira: 1+ assists Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Gilberto Mora: 3+ goals Jun 11 $37 +$1 +2%
Luis Romo: 2+ goals Jun 11 $35 +$2 +5%
Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ goals Jun 11 $28 +$1 +2%
Edson Álvarez: 2+ goals Jun 11 $262 +$5 +2%
César Montes: 2+ goals Jun 11 $253 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $192 +$27 +14%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $54 −$54 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 11 $201 −$201 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $229 −$229 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $364 +$63 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $299 +$31 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $104 +$77 +75%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $260 +$6 +2%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 09 $131 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $170 +$4 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8? Jun 08 $280 +$12 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 8? Jun 08 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $489 +$124 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $380 +$20 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $400 +$30 +8%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $60 +$8 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $369 +$31 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $152 +$48 +32%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $11 +$4 +33%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? Jun 01 $154 +$35 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $244 +$84 +34%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $404 +$26 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $245 +$69 +28%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $251 +$39 +16%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $354 +$46 +13%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? May 20 $271 +$43 +16%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $247 +$28 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $99 +$23 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026? May 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 73% −$1,856
world 14% +$660
other 10% +$110
politics 1% +$84
finance 1% −$65
tech 1% +$119
sports 1% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nathan Saliba: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $177 1h
Jonathan Osorio: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $64 1h
Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots BUY No 98¢ $125 1h
Alphonso Davies: 2+ shots BUY No 97¢ $63 1h
Alphonso Davies: 1+ assists BUY No 98¢ $67 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 84¢ $42 2h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 88¢ $44 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $108 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $23 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $185 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $84 14h
Lee Donggyeong: 1+ assists BUY No 94¢ $100 14h
Denis Višinský: 1+ assists BUY No 94¢ $99 14h
Jan Kuchta: 1+ assists BUY No 94¢ $85 14h
Bae Junho: 1+ assists BUY No 94¢ $89 14h
Vladimír Darida: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $49 14h
Lee Donggyeong: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $50 14h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY No 85¢ $43 14h
Kim Jingyu: 1+ goals BUY No 96¢ $35 15h
Jan Kuchta: 2+ Goals BUY No 98¢ $5 15h
Vladimír Darida: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $5 15h
Vladimír Darida: 4+ shots BUY No 95¢ $22 15h
Jan Kuchta: 5+ shots BUY No 96¢ $24 15h
Bae Junho: 1+ shots BUY No 94¢ $5 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $4 24h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $9 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $11 25h
Edson Álvarez: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $177 26h
César Montes: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $228 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $428 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -3.7% -12.8% 89% 17% -10.4%
≤30d 53 -0.7% -10.2% 89% 34% -5.6%
≤90d 691 -72.2% -74.9% 24% 20% -47.6%
all 1265 -3.0% -12.2% 56% 50% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 50% -11.3%
10% -20.6% 39% -19.8%
15% -28.3% 38% -27.6%
20% -35.3% 38% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,300.06 · official $2,299.49 (match) · 3500 history records