Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5E 0x5ea8…90c9 sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$344 (+4%) realized +$363 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%20W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$266
7 days−$305
14 days+$606
30 days+$606
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$490
other 5% −$14
tech 1% −$85
politics 1% −$32
crypto 1% +$41
economics 1% −$57
world 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +39.6% +26.3% 52% 52% -15.9%
≤30d 35 +42.0% +28.5% 57% 54% -0.9%
≤90d 40 +27.3% +15.2% 50% 48% -4.1%
all 41 +24.2% +12.4% 49% 46% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 46% -4.9%
10% +1.6% 46% -14.0%
15% -8.2% 44% -22.3%
20% -17.2% 41% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$117 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$628
Realized+$363
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 55
History coverage95d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 50¢ 48¢ $555 $538 −$17 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 48¢ $93 $90 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 +$16 +399%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $627 −$117 -19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $57 +$41 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $369 +$244 +66%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $19 +$81 +418%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $264 +$236 +90%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $249 +$231 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 −$6 -19%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $167 +$199 +119%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$137 +223%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$19 +129%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 +$12 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $135 +$65 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 +$14 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $36 +$29 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $523 −$454 -87%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $209 −$10 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $445 −$235 -53%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $274 −$271 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$64 -62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $665 −$665 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $119 −$7 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $295 +$350 +119%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $333 +$269 +81%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $389 −$142 -37%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $323 −$77 -24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $335 +$434 +129%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $202 +$290 +144%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $138 +$42 +31%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $120 +$89 +74%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 13 $22 −$21 -96%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 12 $54 −$11 -20%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 14 $37 −$22 -60%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 7? Apr 08 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: BUY 12¢ $26 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $94 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $94 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $469 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? AND Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 I BUY 1¢ $6 5h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: BUY 4¢ $31 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 16¢ $17 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $102 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $620 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY 20¢ $4 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $508 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $192 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $177 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U BUY 5¢ $21 32h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY 19¢ $19 36h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Tür BUY 22¢ $4 47h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Tür BUY 22¢ $31 47h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Tür BUY 22¢ $263 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 2d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 8¢ $31 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $30 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republi BUY 13¢ $21 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY 13¢ $21 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $233 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republi BUY 13¢ $193 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $480 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $249 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 19¢ $206 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 30¢ $29 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $628.07 · official $689.40 · 160 history records