Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5ea8…b084
sports · 557 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$13,861 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13,898 · open −$103
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,001
Realized+$13,898
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses253 / 290
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$550
Open positions14
Markets (closed)543 / 557
History coverage584d
Avg bet$472
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 14 History 543 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$260
7 days−$260
14 days+$737
30 days−$578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ 74¢ $298 $300 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 92¢ 92¢ $186 $186 +$0 (+0%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 32¢ $220 $126 −$94 (-43%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? No 55¢ 54¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 36¢ $60 $37 −$23 (-39%)
Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $31 $36 +$4 (+13%)
Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+58%)
Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 35¢ 46¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+30%)
Ostium FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+108%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 79¢ 78¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
QFEX FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 20¢ 41¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+105%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-17? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Lakers Rockets 65¢ 0¢ $791 $0 −$791 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $172 $0 −$172 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 21¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $564 $0 −$564 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $73 +$32 +44%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $222 +$29 +13%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 11 $39 −$38 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $43 −$1 -4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $50 −$2 -4%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $174 −$172 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $44 −$43 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $62 −$61 -99%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $205 +$2 +1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1,426 +$1,002 +70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? May 29 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $29 +$19 +67%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 15 $429 +$2 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $383 −$337 -88%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 12 $10 +$6 +55%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $58 −$57 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $255 −$254 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $125 −$123 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $115 +$65 +57%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $749 +$1,138 +152%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 28 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $29 +$13 +44%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $25 −$25 -97%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $578 −$564 -98%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 25 $70 −$69 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $631 +$119 +19%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $2,700 +$4,800 +178%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 24 $369 +$636 +172%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 24 $675 −$486 -72%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 21 $1,389 −$1,384 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 21 $4,498 −$4,477 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $1,600 +$820 +51%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $1,750 −$265 -15%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $727 −$12 -2%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $7 +$4 +52%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $383 +$76 +20%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 20 $295 +$1,014 +344%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 19 $175 −$175 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $2,467 +$824 +33%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 18 $835 −$797 -95%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $2 +$10 +509%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $454 +$269 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% −$18,633
other 38% +$32,063
world 2% +$89
crypto 1% +$252
politics 1% −$390
culture 1% +$391
economics 0% +$21
tech 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $98 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $66 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $77 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $57 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $12 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $82 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $76 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $56 1h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 92¢ $93 6h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 92¢ $93 6h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $61 6h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $61 6h
Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 48¢ $84 10h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 19h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $29 20h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $41 20h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 49¢ $48 20h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 88¢ $95 20h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 20h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $50 20h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $43 20h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 88¢ $126 20h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $73 21h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $40 24h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $47 24h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 24h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $43 24h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $44 25h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $62 25h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 49¢ $208 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -44.9% -50.2% 30% 20% -35.3%
≤30d 18 -39.0% -44.8% 39% 22% -22.1%
≤90d 400 -27.7% -34.6% 34% 31% -20.7%
all 543 -4.8% -13.8% 47% 42% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 42% -4.7%
10% -22.1% 35% -13.8%
15% -29.6% 31% -22.1%
20% -36.5% 24% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,000.67 · official $1,000.68 (match) · 2964 history records