Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:18:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5E 0x5eab…89dc sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 428d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
Total PnL +$181 (+9%) realized +$179 · open −$44
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%32W / 40L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days+$13
14 days+$83
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$86
sports 35% −$53
tech 15% −$36
politics 7% +$164
crypto 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.4% -2.8% 53% 53% -6.8%
≤30d 17 +18.0% +6.8% 53% 53% +5.1%
≤90d 18 +11.5% +0.9% 50% 50% -0.6%
all 72 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 43% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 43% -0.3%
10% -16.6% 43% -9.8%
15% -24.7% 33% -18.5%
20% -32.1% 29% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

428d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$179
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 40
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage428d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $124 $105 −$18 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Seattle Sounders vs. Atlético Madrid: 3+ Goals Scored? No 49¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Over 53¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will Seattle Sounders vs. Atlético Madrid end in a draw? Yes 21¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 39¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card) Brunno Ferreira 41¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Fight to Go the Distance? No 69¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Jirí Procházka 49¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will FC Porto beat Inter Miami? Yes 53¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Reinier de Ridder 34¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Fight to Go the Distance? No 44¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 44¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 21 be greater than 2,000,000? Yes 14¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 51¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $17 −$10 -62%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 −$20 -19%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$15 +61%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $33 −$32 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $15 +$11 +71%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$11 +114%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $11 +$4 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 +$28 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +42%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $25 +$28 +110%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $61 +$62 +102%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $42 −$42 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $36 +$70 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $41 −$1 -2%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? Mar 08 $5 +$1 +30%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $10 +$18 +177%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Mar 08 $11 −$6 -58%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $50 +$17 +35%
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $15 +$8 +54%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 21 be greater than Jan 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 19 - January 25 be Jan 21 $118 +$1 +1%
Will André Ventura win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round Jan 19 $25 +$93 +367%
Will Seattle Sounders vs. Atlético Madrid end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Sounders vs. Atlético Madrid: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Palmeiras beat Al Ahly? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +56%
Palmeiras and Al Ahly: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 19 $5 +$4 +85%
Will FC Porto beat Inter Miami? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Al Ain vs. Juventus: 4+ Goals Scored? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mamelodi Sundowns beat Ulsan Hyundai? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will RB Salzburg beat Pachuca? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ulsan Hyundai vs. Mamelodi Sundowns end in a draw? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Pachuca beat RB Salzburg? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ulsan Hyundai beat Mamelodi Sundowns? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Real Madrid vs. Al Hilal: 4+ Goals Scored? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Juventus beat Al Ain? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Al Ain beat Juventus? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Pachuca vs. RB Salzburg: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Real Madrid vs. Al Hilal end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 +$17 +488%
Will Real Madrid beat Al Hilal? Jun 18 $11 +$32 +300%
Manchester City vs. Wydad AC: 4+ Goals Scored? Jun 18 $4 $0 -8%
Monterrey vs. Inter Milan: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +107%
Will Inter Milan beat Monterrey? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $6 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $14 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $26 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $43 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 18h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Haiti 100¢ $31 18h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $4 19h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 59¢ $7 20h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 20h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 46¢ $10 20h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 26¢ $6 20h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $6 20h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $16 21h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 65¢ $12 21h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 22h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $26 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $15 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $21 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 27h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 29h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $8 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $11 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $18 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.47 · official $105.48 (match) · 178 history records