Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5eab…d552 sports 80 markets active 2d ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$67,758 (+36%) realized +$67,724 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate76%60W / 19L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$2,362per market
Trades / day79.1pace
Fees−$3,790est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.8% -6.1% 78% 11% -8.9%
≤30d 40 +6.2% -3.9% 78% 20% -8.2%
≤90d 79 +7.2% -3.0% 76% 23% -8.5%
all 79 +7.2% -3.0% 76% 23% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 23% -8.5%
10% -12.3% 10% -17.2%
15% ← realistic here -20.8% 1% -25.2%
20% -28.5% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,736) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$50 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.32 per $1 lost it wins $3.32
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$67,724
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses60 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$3,790
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$2,362
Trades / day79.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 4¢ 6¢ $90 $124 +$34 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,450 +$56 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $731 +$66 +9%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $24 +$4 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20,440 +$60 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $870 +$57 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7,581 +$21 +0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,522 −$7 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5,621 +$11 +0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $109 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,733 −$40 -2%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,301 +$70 +3%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,695 −$121 -7%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $662 +$56 +8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,172 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4,210 +$88 +2%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $480 +$50 +10%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2,341 −$161 -7%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $9,297 +$9 +0%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $864 −$52 -6%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $1,303 +$39 +3%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $1,437 +$65 +4%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $300 +$46 +16%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $105 +$20 +19%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $198 +$54 +27%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $793 +$164 +21%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $1,736 +$117 +7%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $1,749 +$116 +7%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $329 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qual May 30 $1,790 +$146 +8%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $1 $0 +9%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $1,677 +$122 +7%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $68 +$23 +34%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $3,473 −$133 -4%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $5,307 −$53 -1%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $49 +$6 +11%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $61 +$4 +6%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $1,393 +$262 +19%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $719 +$68 +10%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $1,680 +$62 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $25,388 −$32 -0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $2,446 +$45 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $144 +$35 +24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $60 +$3 +5%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 16 $731 +$124 +17%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $129 +$29 +23%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $1,205 +$122 +10%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $350 +$50 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $159 +$15 +10%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $106 −$7 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Team Liquid 4¢ $8 43h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Team Liquid 9¢ $12 43h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Team Liquid 9¢ $5 43h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Team Liquid 9¢ $9 44h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Team Liquid 9¢ $1 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 11¢ $6 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 11¢ $5 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 11¢ $1 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 11¢ $5 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 11¢ $5 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 11¢ $1 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 11¢ $1 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 11¢ $22 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 11¢ $8 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 8¢ $40 45h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL Team Liquid 6¢ $1 46h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Team Liquid 4¢ $0 46h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Team Liquid 4¢ $95 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $30 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $11 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $3 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $0 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $10 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $2 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $50 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $4 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $4 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $1 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $5 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.39 · official $124.39 (match) · 3500 history records