Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5eb0…ffe3
politics · 150 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses8 / 141
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage123d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 149 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Suns vs. Bucks Bucks 48¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Bulls Bulls 23¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Bucks Jazz 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Pistons Thunder 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Kings Pacers 42¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $231 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $86 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $318 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $92 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $109 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $110 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $90 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $320 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $255 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $111 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $177 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $204 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $236 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $112 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $294 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $233 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $84 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $199 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $91 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $226 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $116 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $115 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $328 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $103 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $314 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $111 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $107 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $121 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $310 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $96 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $105 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $97 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $114 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $118 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $110 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $217 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 39% −$9
other 39% −$8
sports 10% +$16
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 8h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 14h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 20h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 4d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 15d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 15d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 15d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $86 21d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $86 21d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $101 21d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $101 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $92 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $92 23d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $109 23d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $109 23d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 123 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 149 +3.0% -6.8% 5% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 3% -9.5%
10% -15.8% 3% -18.2%
15% -23.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -31.4% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.99 · official $13.99 (match) · 452 history records