Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5eb1…6be9 weather 453 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 153d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,087 (-10%) realized −$1,087 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%149W / 306L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$75
14 days−$96
30 days−$606
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$695
weather 17% −$395
sports 1% +$141
other 0% +$82
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -10.3% -18.8% 44% 41% -0.1%
≤30d 246 -18.6% -26.3% 37% 29% -15.3%
≤90d 436 -11.3% -19.7% 33% 29% -14.9%
all 455 -11.4% -19.9% 33% 28% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 28% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 27% -24.2%
15% -34.5% 25% -31.5%
20% -41.0% 21% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,087
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses149 / 306
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)455 / 453
History coverage153d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? No 46¢ 47¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -792%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -286%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +90%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -71%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$5 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -56%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +75%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -47%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$7 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -67%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $43 +$157 +365%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -69%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $28 +$82 +298%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +112%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +96%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -58%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -56%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -45%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +177%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? SELL No 18¢ $1 36m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? SELL No 16¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY No 46¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? BUY No 35¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 24¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 24¢ $1 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 4¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 6¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 12¢ $2 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 59¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 51¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY No 37¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY No 37¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY No 33¢ $0 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 9¢ $3 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 20¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 30¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 60¢ $3 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? SELL No 4¢ $0 38h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? SELL No 7¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 18¢ $1 38h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 3¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 13¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $14 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $13 38h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 32¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $11 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.01 · official $3.01 (match) · 3500 history records