Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5eb2…3971 crypto 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate95%81W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$13
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 6% -7.5%
≤90d 78 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 8% -10.0%
all 85 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 7% -9.9%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$19 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses81 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage99d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 97¢ 97¢ $84 $84 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $79 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $76 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $75 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $20 +$4 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $77 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $75 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $71 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $68 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $51 +$8 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 30 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 29 $8 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $8 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 19 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 11 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 09 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? May 08 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 07 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 04 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 2? May 03 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 02 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1? May 02 $64 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? May 01 $64 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $84 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $83 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $80 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $79 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $78 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $70 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $7 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $76 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $75 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $50 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? BUY No 81¢ $20 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $70 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY No 69¢ $8 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $77 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $75 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 95¢ $71 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $70 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 98¢ $68 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY No 85¢ $51 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? BUY No 99¢ $8 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $8 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $8 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? BUY No 96¢ $8 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $8 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? BUY No 97¢ $8 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 99¢ $7 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? BUY No 95¢ $7 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $7 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? BUY No 99¢ $7 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 99¢ $7 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.70 · official $83.70 (match) · 171 history records