Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5eb3…9b10 world 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$8
sports 20% −$11
politics 15% −$2
other 15% +$5
economics 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 25% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 33 +17.7% +6.5% 48% 12% -9.0%
≤90d 69 +9.6% -0.8% 43% 7% -9.1%
all 70 +8.1% -2.2% 43% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 7% -9.6%
10% -11.6% 6% -18.2%
15% -20.1% 6% -26.1%
20% -28.0% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 40
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage482d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $56 $59 +$2 (+4%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? No 79¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $23 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $7 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $61 −$3 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $63 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $52 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $131 −$11 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $77 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $88 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $4 $0 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $67 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $69 −$9 -13%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $69 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $29 +$24 +83%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $6 −$1 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $4 $0 +7%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 18 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $114 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $4 $0 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $253 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $86 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $87 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $112 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $37 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $80 +$5 +6%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $56 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $8 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $4 30h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $3 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $23 38h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $6 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $7 47h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $24 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $29 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $29 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 9d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $0 10d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.71 · official $58.69 · 356 history records