Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5E 0x5eb6…9e4d sports 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$77 (-3%) realized −$69 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%67W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$222
14 days−$74
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$46
other 22% +$35
world 2% −$60
crypto 1% −$26
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -4.7% -13.8% 36% 36% -25.1%
≤30d 125 +2.7% -7.0% 50% 50% -10.5%
≤90d 134 -2.0% -11.3% 49% 49% -12.9%
all 136 -1.7% -11.0% 49% 49% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 49% -12.6%
10% -19.5% 48% -20.9%
15% -27.3% 43% -28.6%
20% -34.4% 31% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses67 / 69
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions8
Markets (closed)136 / 144
History coverage192d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
England to score first vs. Croatia? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Yes 51¢ 34¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +42%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 +$10 +313%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$16 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$10 +65%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 +$34 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 +$8 +52%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $30 +$37 +120%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $63 −$6 -9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $55 −$42 -76%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $30 +$14 +48%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $25 +$21 +82%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $20 +$9 +45%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $18 +$21 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$35 +183%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 −$19 -74%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +44%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 91¢ $13 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 13h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 49¢ $14 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 18h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 39h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 39h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 39h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $10 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $71 39h
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 40h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $20 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.31 · official $129.17 (match) · 319 history records