Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5E 0x5eba…a2b8 other 535 markets active 2h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$440 (+0%) realized +$292 · open +$148
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate81%435W / 99L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$261
7 days+$352
14 days+$283
30 days+$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$197
crypto 6% +$140
tech 4% +$6
politics 3% +$6
weather 3% +$5
culture 1% −$8
sports 1% +$544
world 0% −$9
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +2.0% -7.7% 43% 43% +11.0%
≤30d 90 -11.8% -20.2% 49% 26% +2.6%
≤90d 212 -3.2% -12.5% 77% 13% -8.4%
all 534 -1.0% -10.5% 81% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 5% -9.3%
10% -19.0% 4% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 3% -25.9%
20% -34.0% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$292
Unrealized+$148
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses435 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)534 / 535
History coverage189d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 534 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 26¢ 66¢ $96 $244 +$148 (+154%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $48 +$37 +77%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 +$39 +77%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $48 +$48 +100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +139%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$43 -87%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$4 -8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 −$74 -74%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$189 +374%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $69 −$35 -51%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$18 -92%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$63 +126%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 +$35 +116%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$22 +74%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$9 -43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $80 +$41 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -15%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$25 +50%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$140 +276%
Will Czechia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -67%
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $22 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $49 +$10 +21%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 +$120 +240%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $31 +$35 +114%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $44 +$67 +152%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $4 +$1 +32%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 25¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $48 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $48 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $86 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $48 4h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 58¢ $10 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 14h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $9 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $96 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $48 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $24 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $7 23h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $47 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $26 23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $240 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $34 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 24h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal $2 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 69¢ $114 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $10 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.86 · official $243.86 (match) · 1359 history records