Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:17:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ebe…c341 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-3%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%5W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$20
world 31% −$5
politics 13% $0
sports 10% −$2
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -1.9% -11.2% 9% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 12 -2.6% -11.8% 8% 0% -11.8%
all 37 -3.6% -12.7% 14% 0% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -11.9%
10% -21.1% 0% -20.3%
15% -28.7% 0% -28.0%
20% -35.7% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses5 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage251d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $12 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $35 −$4 -11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $21 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $46 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $28 −$3 -10%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $92 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $71 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 18 $24 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 17 $24 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $24 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 1h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $28 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $32 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $12 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $12 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $31 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 94¢ $12 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 93¢ $9 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 93¢ $21 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $22 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $6 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $18 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $46 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $41 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $41 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $4 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $23 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $4 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $10 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $22 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $22 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $14 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $35 28d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 29d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.39 · official $41.39 (match) · 189 history records