Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5E 0x5ebe…c599 politics 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$14
politics 37% −$14
tech 5% −$1
economics 4% −$1
sports 3% +$10
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 108 -8.2% -17.0% 5% 2% -9.9%
all 122 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×9.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage115d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $206 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $219 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $270 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $464 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $263 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $252 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $254 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $206 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $216 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 09 $431 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $196 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $224 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $274 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 05 $227 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $232 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $227 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $427 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $203 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $209 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $273 $0 -0%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 29 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $443 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $267 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $207 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $196 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $260 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $188 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 6d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 6d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 7d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 7d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 13d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $206 27d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $206 27d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $219 28d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 30d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $195 30d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $195 31d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $228 31d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $228 33d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 33d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 34d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $270 34d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $270 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 345 history records