Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ec0…634b world 91 markets active 3d ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%35W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$6
other 23% +$15
politics 11% +$2
sports 11% −$12
economics 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% +$2
weather 0% −$14
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 19 -2.2% -11.5% 37% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 64 -4.0% -13.1% 38% 0% -9.6%
all 89 -3.4% -12.6% 39% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 4% -9.8%
10% -21.0% 3% -18.5%
15% -28.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses35 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage532d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -38%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $86 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $75 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $35 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $43 −$3 -7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $78 −$2 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $37 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $133 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $58 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $1 $0 -15%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $37 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $38 −$5 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $67 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $52 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $2 $0 -8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 11 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $125 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $91 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $13 $0 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $78 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $19 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $17 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $39 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 3¢ $1 6d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 4¢ $0 7d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 4¢ $1 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $24 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $8 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $31 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $39 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 10d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $10 10d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $25 10d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $19 10d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $16 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $27 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $8 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $23 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $13 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 12d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.40 · official $0.00 (match) · 354 history records