Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:53:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5E 0x5ec5…4168 sports 387 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$141 (+0%) realized +$51 · open +$90
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate63%242W / 143L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$262est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$181
7 days+$181
14 days+$116
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$1,209
crypto 20% +$308
other 19% +$1,031
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +26.4% +14.4% 100% 67% +20.3%
≤30d 206 -2.1% -11.4% 62% 62% -10.5%
≤90d 385 -4.0% -13.1% 63% 61% -9.3%
all 385 -4.0% -13.1% 63% 61% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 61% -9.3%
10% -21.5% 50% -18.0%
15% -29.0% 36% -25.9%
20% -36.0% 24% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$61 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses242 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$262
Open positions2
Markets (closed)385 / 387
History coverage81d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 48¢ 81¢ $100 $170 +$70 (+70%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 34¢ 48¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 +$7 +23%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $317 +$163 +52%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $45 +$25 +55%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $201 +$22 +11%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $55 +$22 +40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $45 +$14 +31%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $32 +$10 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 +$25 +97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $35 +$31 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $35 +$25 +70%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $60 +$18 +29%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 −$61 -58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $40 +$18 +46%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $36 +$6 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $42 +$10 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 +$12 +47%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 +$19 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $284 −$115 -41%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $20 +$10 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $45 +$10 +23%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $35 +$9 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $30 +$6 +22%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $60 +$20 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $47 +$25 +55%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $90 +$11 +12%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $30 +$14 +46%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $41 +$9 +23%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $101 +$61 +60%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $61 +$25 +42%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $56 +$24 +43%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $51 −$38 -74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $55 +$44 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $38 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 99¢ $83 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 34¢ $51 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 48¢ $102 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 72¢ $61 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 64¢ $397 6d
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 71¢ $30 8d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $222 8d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $201 9d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 40¢ $256 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $45 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $60 9d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 71¢ $55 9d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $5 10d
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 64¢ $45 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $59 10d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 77¢ $60 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $81 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $40 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $25 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $20 10d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 67¢ $30 10d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 81¢ $42 10d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 86¢ $36 10d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $35 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.11 · official $240.13 (match) · 739 history records