Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ec7…79ba crypto 726 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$796 (+1%) realized +$775 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate70%519W / 219L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day87.6pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$737now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$564
7 days+$1,432
14 days+$1,588
30 days+$916
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$578
sports 36% +$1,302
other 7% +$238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -16.1% -24.1% 67% 13% -6.4%
≤30d 503 -6.1% -15.0% 71% 41% -8.2%
≤90d 738 -6.1% -15.0% 70% 45% -8.5%
all 738 -6.1% -15.0% 70% 45% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 45% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 28% -17.3%
15% -30.6% 15% -25.2%
20% -37.4% 8% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$737
Realized+$775
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses519 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)738 / 726
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$93
Trades / day87.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 738 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-3.5) Ghana 94¢ 97¢ $701 $720 +$19 (+3%)
Spread: England (-4.5) Ghana 92¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$10 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 +$2 +105%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $1,920 +$80 +4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $1,364 +$148 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $111 +$21 +19%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $1,842 +$158 +9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$52 +119%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $7 $0 +3%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $93 +$1 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $321 +$39 +12%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2,033 +$88 +4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1,840 +$160 +9%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 −$3 -57%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $850 +$146 +17%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $292 −$113 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $96 −$3 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $103 −$16 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $252 +$9 +3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $962 +$38 +4%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,186 +$114 +10%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $136 +$14 +10%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,920 +$80 +4%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,842 +$58 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $63 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $199 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $575 −$190 -33%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1,948 +$52 +3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3 +$7 +257%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $1,881 +$116 +6%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $940 +$60 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 +$3 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $71 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $2,108 +$24 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,458 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 94¢ $689 24m
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 94¢ $6 24m
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 94¢ $6 27m
Spread: England (-4.5) BUY Ghana 95¢ $5 41m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under $5 44m
Spread: England (-4.5) BUY Ghana 90¢ $10 54m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $2 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 98¢ $1,512 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $394 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $96 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $0 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $819 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $20 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $591 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $424 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $16 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $0 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $304 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $220 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $17 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $323 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $17 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $44 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 63¢ $132 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 9h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $901 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $245 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $6 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $736.57 · official $736.57 (match) · 3500 history records