Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ec7…fd3d other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$129 (-2%) realized −$139 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate77%72W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$98
14 days−$93
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$22
sports 33% −$147
politics 19% +$13
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -10.2% -18.8% 79% 31% -18.1%
≤30d 66 -5.3% -14.3% 79% 35% -11.3%
≤90d 94 -7.1% -15.9% 77% 31% -12.2%
all 94 -7.1% -15.9% 77% 31% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 31% -12.2%
10% -24.0% 5% -20.6%
15% -31.3% 2% -28.3%
20% -38.0% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$25 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$295
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses72 / 22
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions11
Markets (closed)94 / 105
History coverage98d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+13%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+35%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$2 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $60 +$10 +17%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $40 +$7 +16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 −$18 -95%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $36 +$2 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 +$5 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $45 +$2 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $57 +$6 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $72 −$14 -20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $32 +$3 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$2 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $40 +$3 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $20 +$3 +16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $40 +$2 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $20 +$3 +17%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $85 +$2 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$6 +14%
Mexico to win the second half? Jun 11 $30 +$14 +48%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $39 +$1 +3%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $30 +$5 +15%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $113 +$1 +1%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $50 +$11 +21%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $30 −$22 -71%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 06 $115 +$7 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 63.5 million views in wee Jun 06 $80 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 06 $50 +$1 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $175 −$28 -16%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on day 6? Jun 05 $90 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $10 −$5 -52%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $241 +$26 +11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $10 −$6 -54%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $55 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $40 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 85¢ $60 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $50 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL No 95¢ $47 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $42 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 81¢ $40 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $40 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $1 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $19 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 35h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $10 36h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $21 46h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $38 46h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $36 46h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $20 46h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 94¢ $55 46h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $50 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 90¢ $46 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $46 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $45 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 87¢ $27 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 81¢ $25 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $57 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.91 · official $294.91 (match) · 380 history records