Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:29:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ec8…8c9e sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$163 (-7%) realized −$122 · open −$464
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$122
14 days−$122
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$537
other 11% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.2% -30.5% 36% 36% -16.3%
≤30d 11 -23.2% -30.5% 36% 36% -16.3%
≤90d 11 -23.2% -30.5% 36% 36% -16.3%
all 11 -23.2% -30.5% 36% 36% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 36% -16.3%
10% -37.2% 36% -24.3%
15% -43.3% 36% -31.6%
20% -48.8% 36% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$102 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$464
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $250 $201 −$49 (-20%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Team Liquid 48¢ 0¢ $277 $0 −$277 (-100%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 37¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 53¢ 0¢ $302 $0 −$302 (-100%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs Vivo Keyd Stars 24¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner RED Canids 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Cloud9 52¢ 0¢ $211 $0 −$211 (-100%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Cloud9 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Cloud9 45¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $113 −$1 -1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $304 −$302 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $169 +$169 +100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $305 −$44 -14%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 13 $279 +$252 +90%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $149 +$134 +90%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $214 −$211 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $106 −$104 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $91 1h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $200 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $46 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 46¢ $92 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 51¢ $68 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $74 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 15¢ $18 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $122 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 53¢ $12 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 52¢ $54 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 52¢ $26 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 52¢ $5 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 52¢ $26 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 52¢ $1 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 52¢ $17 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $76 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 52¢ $86 3h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 55¢ $51 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 100¢ $338 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 56¢ $24 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 56¢ $88 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY RED Canids 6¢ $1 5h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 57¢ $13 6h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 57¢ $4 6h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 40¢ $51 7h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 54¢ $101 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 52¢ $51 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 51¢ $127 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $127 15h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Cloud9 45¢ $51 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.37 · official $201.37 (match) · 47 history records