Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ec9…1873 sports 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$323 (+10%) realized +$415 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 35L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$348
7 days+$90
14 days+$97
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$6
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +30.3% +17.9% 43% 39% -6.2%
≤30d 62 +37.1% +24.0% 44% 40% -6.0%
≤90d 62 +37.1% +24.0% 44% 40% -6.0%
all 62 +37.1% +24.0% 44% 40% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.0% 40% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here +12.2% 35% -15.0%
15% +1.3% 31% -23.2%
20% -8.6% 29% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +89% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$32 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$415
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 35
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage8d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 26¢ 24¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Rune Eaters 41¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $124 −$59 -48%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $2 −$2 -81%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $69 +$30 +44%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $40 +$25 +62%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $110 +$30 +28%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $55 +$44 +80%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $38 −$5 -13%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $4 +$12 +300%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 19 $88 +$11 +12%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $88 $0 -0%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $60 +$19 +31%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $90 +$11 +12%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $294 −$292 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $80 +$19 +24%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $18 −$15 -84%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$52 +339%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $122 +$91 +75%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $35 −$33 -93%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $152 −$3 -2%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $116 +$60 +52%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $94 −$27 -29%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $68 −$24 -35%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $30 −$15 -51%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $70 −$1 -1%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $35 +$50 +143%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $56 +$405 +729%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $21 +$5 +22%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $101 +$6 +6%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$20 +100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $15 +$71 +462%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $90 +$6 +6%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $11 +$39 +352%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $25 +$25 +100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $18 +$17 +98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $26 +$38 +145%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$31 +617%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 26¢ $102 28m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 15¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 15¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 15¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 67¢ $68 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 33¢ $38 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 67¢ $100 20h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 56¢ $101 20h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs SELL Hive 38¢ $13 21h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs SELL Hive 38¢ $50 21h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 1¢ $0 21h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 5¢ $2 21h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 13¢ $23 22h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Flame Team 99¢ $99 22h
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 69¢ $69 23h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo SELL summer bear 10¢ $10 23h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo SELL summer bear 55¢ $55 23h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY summer bear 18¢ $18 24h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY summer bear 22¢ $22 24h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 19¢ $14 25h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 19¢ $5 25h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner SELL summer bear 99¢ $99 25h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 55¢ $20 26h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 55¢ $35 26h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $60 27h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo SELL 4ikibamboni 41¢ $40 27h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 50¢ $50 28h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 99¢ $50 28h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 10¢ $5 28h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 75¢ $27 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.48 · official $90.48 (match) · 251 history records