Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5E 0x5eca…5df2 weather 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 0% -6.2%
≤30d 3 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 0% -6.2%
≤90d 3 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 0% -6.2%
all 3 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 0% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 0% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -15.2%
15% -23.6% 0% -23.4%
20% -31.1% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,335
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? No 96¢ 96¢ $541 $544 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? No 97¢ 97¢ $443 $445 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? No 92¢ 96¢ $300 $313 +$13 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 27? No 96¢ 99¢ $32 $34 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $496 +$19 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 26? Jun 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $56 27m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $24 55m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $96 55m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $171 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? BUY No 94¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $22 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $91 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $109 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 92¢ $300 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $126 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $388 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $48 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $28 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $28 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $33 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $106 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $34 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $15 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,335.48 · official $1,335.48 (match) · 36 history records