Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ecc…8abd crypto 1507 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$259 (+1%) realized +$259 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate96%1440W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$34
14 days+$39
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +3.6% -6.2% 99% 8% -6.3%
≤30d 168 +0.5% -9.1% 96% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 1196 +1.0% -8.6% 95% 9% -9.9%
all 1506 +1.3% -8.3% 96% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 8% -9.5%
10% -17.1% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1440 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1506 / 1507
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1506 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$2 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$2 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$2 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $11 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 33h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 34h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 34h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 37h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 37h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records