Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:49:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5ecd…0787
sports · 162 markets active 54d ago
0.0score
+$51,836 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$84,155 · open +$20,865
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$95,148
Realized−$84,155
Unrealized+$20,865
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses76 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions65
Markets (closed)157 / 162
History coverage36d
Avg bet$12,663
Trades / day85.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 65 History 157 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,200
7 days+$1,200
14 days−$84,413
30 days−$82,588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 43¢ 86¢ $21,442 $42,750 +$21,309 (+99%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 72¢ 90¢ $14,414 $17,900 +$3,486 (+24%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $7,635 $8,522 +$887 (+12%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 60¢ 65¢ $4,967 $5,381 +$414 (+8%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Yes 5¢ 100¢ $139 $2,714 +$2,576 (+1854%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 73¢ 52¢ $2,920 $2,060 −$860 (-29%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 55¢ 95¢ $1,158 $1,984 +$825 (+71%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 52¢ 28¢ $3,640 $1,960 −$1,680 (-46%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 64¢ 35¢ $3,210 $1,750 −$1,460 (-45%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? No 80¢ 97¢ $1,292 $1,569 +$277 (+21%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 39¢ 21¢ $2,700 $1,470 −$1,230 (-46%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 42¢ 23¢ $2,474 $1,383 −$1,091 (-44%)
Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 98¢ $1,027 $1,261 +$233 (+23%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 77¢ 58¢ $1,155 $870 −$285 (-25%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 17¢ 34¢ $328 $685 +$357 (+109%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? No 55¢ 36¢ $876 $582 −$295 (-34%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 16¢ 82¢ $64 $325 +$261 (+405%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $45 $273 +$227 (+501%)
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 45¢ $243 $216 −$26 (-11%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Yes 66¢ 38¢ $330 $190 −$140 (-42%)
Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 92¢ 97¢ $117 $123 +$6 (+5%)
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? No 44¢ 98¢ $53 $118 +$65 (+123%)
Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $93 $96 +$3 (+3%)
Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $86 $90 +$4 (+4%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $45 $81 +$35 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 14 $139 +$2,576 +1854%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 14 $2 +$4 +178%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Jun 14 $139 −$139 -100%
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Jun 14 $760 −$760 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 14 $139 −$139 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? Jun 14 $139 −$139 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC? Jun 14 $139 −$139 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Jun 05 $54,207 −$27,676 -51%
Will gpt-5.4-high have the top AI model on April 10, 2026 (Style Contr Jun 05 $6 +$1 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 05 $960 −$835 -87%
Will LedgerX self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1,008 −$868 -86%
Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Att Jun 05 $557 +$247 +44%
Will dola-seed-2.0-preview have the best AI model on April 10, 2026? Jun 05 $228 −$125 -55%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 05 $4,100 −$4,100 -100%
Will gemini-3-flash have the best AI model on April 10, 2026? Jun 05 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Jun 05 $290 −$290 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 1-4, 2026? Jun 05 $9,700 −$9,700 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026? Jun 05 $214 +$4 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Jun 05 $14,192 −$7,695 -54%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Jun 05 $35,958 −$3,621 -10%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Jun 05 $30,662 −$25,522 -83%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Jun 05 $10,359 −$9,480 -92%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 05 $822 +$4,178 +508%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 16 $65 +$5 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 16 $180 +$1,820 +1011%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 08 $32 +$11 +33%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 14 $4,350 $0 +0%
Will none of the eaglets hatch before April 17? Apr 13 $1,884 +$114 +6%
Will gemini-2.5-pro have the best AI model on April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $134 −$124 -93%
Will gemini-3-pro have the best AI model on April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $148 −$123 -83%
Will kimi-k2.5-thinking have the top AI model on April 10, 2026 (Style Apr 11 $568 −$219 -39%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and Apr 10 $3 +$14 +425%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and Apr 10 $6,057 −$6,003 -99%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 56%? Apr 10 $237 −$235 -99%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $6,665 −$630 -10%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 09 $4,756 +$235 +5%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Apr 08 $6,037 +$295 +5%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026? Apr 08 $9,700 −$9,639 -99%
Will The Clearing Company self-certify sports event contracts by June Apr 08 $452 $0 +0%
Will Venezuela become 51st state? Apr 08 $1,490 +$7 +0%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 08 $96 +$5 +5%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? Apr 07 $311 −$161 -52%
Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more? Apr 06 $4,588 +$326 +7%
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 4, 2026? Apr 05 $3,270 +$172 +5%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $150,485 −$31,059 -21%
Will dola-seed-2.0-preview have the top AI model on April 10, 2026 (St Apr 05 $223 −$223 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% −$15,833
world 35% +$14,787
politics 4% −$57,859
other 4% −$4,046
culture 0% +$215
tech 0% −$1,771
finance 0% +$15
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 54d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 87¢ $4,350 60d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and SELL Yes 0¢ $5 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and SELL Yes 0¢ $0 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and SELL Yes 0¢ $0 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and SELL Yes 0¢ $1 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $3 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and SELL Yes 0¢ $0 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $1 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $1 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $1 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and SELL Yes 0¢ $11 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $1 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $1 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $0 64d
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and SELL No 0¢ $45 64d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 64¢ $12 65d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 64¢ $8 65d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 64¢ $8 65d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 64¢ $5 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +102.9% +83.6% 18% 18% +61.9%
≤30d 29 +62.0% +46.6% 28% 21% -54.8%
≤90d 154 +18.1% +6.9% 48% 19% -15.7%
all 157 +18.5% +7.2% 48% 20% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover85.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.2% 20% -15.7%
10% -3.1% 17% -23.8%
15% ← realistic here -12.4% 13% -31.2%
20% -21.0% 10% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95,147.88 · official $95,175.95 (match) · 3500 history records