Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5E 0x5ed8…303d crypto 934 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22,844 (+14%) realized +$22,844 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate91%854W / 83L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day63.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8,825
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +18.6% +7.3% 97% 22% -2.0%
≤30d 681 +14.2% +3.4% 93% 23% -4.5%
≤90d 937 +11.1% +0.5% 91% 23% -4.6%
all 937 +11.1% +0.5% 91% 23% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 23% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 16% -13.7%
15% -17.9% 11% -22.1%
20% -26.0% 9% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$111 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$22,844
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses854 / 83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)937 / 934
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$174
Trades / day63.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 937 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $401 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $401 +$726 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $371 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $131 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $400 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $321 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $154 +$25 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$74 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $199 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $207 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $250 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $400 +$30 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $401 +$22 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $400 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $97 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $401 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $400 +$19 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $302 +$58 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $217 +$25 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $97 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $169 +$17 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $401 +$17 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $202 +$67 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $200 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $400 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $400 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $33 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $86 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $87 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $209 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $21 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $67 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $32 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $36 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.50 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records