Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ed9…06ca other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$4 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$24
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$21
crypto 23% −$18
world 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +4.9% -5.1% 72% 61% +4.5%
≤30d 31 -9.6% -18.2% 65% 58% -11.5%
≤90d 31 -9.6% -18.2% 65% 58% -11.5%
all 31 -9.6% -18.2% 65% 58% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 58% -11.5%
10% -26.1% 39% -20.0%
15% -33.2% 39% -27.7%
20% -39.8% 16% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Open positions10
Markets (closed)31 / 41
History coverage9d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? No 72¢ 72¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? No 88¢ 88¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 45¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$5 +13%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +83%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $25 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 72¢ $35 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $30 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $40 21h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 36h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 36h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 36h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.16 · official $135.16 (match) · 71 history records