Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5E
0x5eda…92a7
world · 299 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,957 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,239 · open −$56
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,958
Realized−$4,239
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses167 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions24
Markets (closed)275 / 299
History coverage100d
Avg bet$411
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 24 History 275 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$832
14 days−$981
30 days−$5,533
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $1,283 $1,273 −$10 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 84¢ $545 $558 +$13 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $440 $434 −$6 (-1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $287 $291 +$5 (+2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $135 $179 +$44 (+33%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $173 $166 −$6 (-4%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 74¢ 79¢ $148 $158 +$10 (+7%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 81¢ 79¢ $154 $150 −$4 (-3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 58¢ 70¢ $110 $133 +$23 (+21%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $102 $119 +$17 (+16%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $97 $89 −$7 (-8%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 37¢ $137 $74 −$63 (-46%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 91¢ 93¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $62 $67 +$5 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $127 $63 −$64 (-51%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 44¢ 39¢ $44 $39 −$5 (-11%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 25¢ 38¢ $25 $38 +$12 (+50%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 85¢ 84¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 74¢ 67¢ $15 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $19 $10 −$10 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 72¢ 44¢ $13 $8 −$5 (-38%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-75%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 76¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+20%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $879 −$210 -24%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 13 $62 −$32 -52%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 12 $381 +$109 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $491 −$271 -55%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be less than or equal t Jun 12 $7 +$5 +84%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $332 +$3 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 12 $800 +$10 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $1,026 −$10 -1%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 11 $1,186 +$46 +4%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $49 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $235 +$3 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 11 $787 +$27 +3%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4 Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Jun 11 $4 $0 +8%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $39 +$9 +23%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $220 +$19 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $95 +$5 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $2,106 −$474 -22%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $56 +$4 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $37 +$2 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 06 $241 −$48 -20%
FDA approves Vepdegestrant? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1,180 +$7 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,754 +$458 +26%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $79 +$2 +2%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Jun 03 $2,287 +$72 +3%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 03 $803 +$19 +2%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $193 +$12 +6%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 01 $158 +$4 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 01 $22 $0 +1%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $68 −$59 -86%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $482 −$50 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $2,247 −$335 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1,234 −$233 -19%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 31 $28 −$17 -60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 31 $220 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $503 −$153 -30%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? May 31 $64 −$6 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5,736 −$451 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 30 $704 −$86 -12%
Canada recession before 2027? May 30 $39 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $463 +$16 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $327 −$327 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $626 −$172 -28%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 29 $534 +$35 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 76% −$4,481
other 14% −$137
politics 4% −$38
crypto 3% +$444
sports 2% +$29
finance 1% −$224
culture 0% +$110
economics 0% +$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 19m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 19m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 20m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 21m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 23m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $57 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 52m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 56m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $115 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $75 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $422 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 2h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 2h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 2h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $72 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $52 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -7.6% -16.4% 65% 13% -17.9%
≤30d 112 -3.6% -12.8% 44% 11% -19.4%
≤90d 244 -5.3% -14.3% 61% 12% -12.8%
all 275 -5.7% -14.6% 61% 13% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 13% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 7% -21.1%
15% -30.3% 4% -28.8%
20% -37.1% 3% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,958.28 · official $3,958.28 (match) · 2809 history records