Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5eda…3136 crypto 725 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$287 (-0%) realized −$287 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%344W / 381L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day36.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 81d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,378
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +4.8% -5.2% 57% 57% +4.2%
≤30d 199 -3.5% -12.7% 49% 47% -21.4%
≤90d 725 -6.3% -15.3% 47% 47% -11.9%
all 725 -6.3% -15.3% 47% 47% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 47% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 45% -20.4%
15% -30.8% 43% -28.1%
20% -37.6% 38% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$98 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses344 / 381
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)725 / 725
History coverage81d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day36.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 725 Trades
no open positions (169 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$29 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $45 +$33 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $119 +$53 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $72 −$71 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$93 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $72 −$69 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$45 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$32 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $165 +$187 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $67 +$91 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $129 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $89 −$88 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $73 +$20 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$8 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$7 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$16 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $62 +$88 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$63 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $38 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $154 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $102 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $28 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $45 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $172 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $119 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $49 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $23 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $32 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $84 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $31 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $40 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $24 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3280 history records