Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ee1…9801 other 371 markets active 2h ago coverage 201d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 201d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,484 (+2%) realized +$8,300 · open +$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate56%208W / 162L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$920per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$8,160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$259
7 days+$866
14 days+$1,174
30 days+$1,174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$8,221
other 47% +$799
world 2% +$71
politics 0% −$32
crypto 0% +$2
weather 0% −$27
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -9.3% -18.0% 89% 2% -8.4%
≤30d 65 -14.6% -22.7% 83% 5% -8.4%
≤90d 162 -26.9% -33.8% 57% 12% -10.3%
all 370 -15.9% -23.9% 56% 20% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 20% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 14% -16.0%
15% -37.8% 10% -24.1%
20% -43.9% 8% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$1,074) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$199 vs −$203 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$8,160
Realized+$8,300
Unrealized+$184
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses208 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)370 / 371
History coverage201d ⚠
Avg bet$920
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan Australia 97¢ 100¢ $7,975 $8,160 +$184 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $824 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $3,344 +$67 +2%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1,744 +$37 +2%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $1,942 +$29 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $1,465 +$61 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $3,597 +$24 +1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? Jun 22 $14 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Iraq? Jun 22 $14 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $2,150 +$4 +0%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5,169 +$56 +1%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2,497 +$7 +0%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $2,319 +$16 +1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 21 $3,610 +$14 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $14 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $4,239 +$63 +2%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $3,425 +$17 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $918 +$17 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Jun 20 $1,208 +$25 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Haiti? Jun 20 $1,673 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $1,785 +$32 +2%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $3,203 +$41 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $2,055 +$20 +1%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $1,432 +$47 +3%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,135 +$253 +22%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,001 +$33 +3%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $761 +$17 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,381 +$19 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $580 +$16 +3%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $2,314 +$18 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1,795 +$18 +1%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $744 +$6 +1%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $295 −$285 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $2,545 +$34 +1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $781 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $510 +$16 +3%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $484 +$30 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $429 +$28 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $2,994 +$31 +1%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $14 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $573 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $836 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $779 +$9 +1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $2,535 +$27 +1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $862 +$33 +4%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $134 +$8 +6%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $906 +$15 +2%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1,482 +$46 +3%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $600 +$46 +8%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1,565 +$6 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 99¢ $1,534 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 99¢ $1,277 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 97¢ $578 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 97¢ $528 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 97¢ $75 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 97¢ $426 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 97¢ $500 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 96¢ $501 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 96¢ $49 10h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 96¢ $402 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 96¢ $75 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 96¢ $354 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 96¢ $172 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 96¢ $501 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 97¢ $503 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Australia 97¢ $503 12h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $824 22h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? BUY No 98¢ $1,741 22h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 98¢ $479 23h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 98¢ $2,389 23h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Iraq? BUY No 98¢ $1,942 34h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? BUY No 96¢ $1,096 34h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? BUY No 96¢ $369 34h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 98¢ $476 36h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 36h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Iraq? BUY Yes 0¢ $14 36h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Austria? BUY No 99¢ $3,597 36h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $2,150 46h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 100¢ $2,497 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,159.54 · official $8,163.63 (match) · 3500 history records