Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ee5…7618 other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$36
14 days−$46
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$23
politics 29% −$37
sports 14% −$8
finance 9% +$4
economics 7% −$5
crypto 5% −$1
world 4% −$4
culture 2% −$1
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -3.5% -12.6% 5% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 60 -1.7% -11.0% 7% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 107 -1.0% -10.4% 10% 0% -10.0%
all 121 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 106
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage98d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $133 −$2 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $183 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $147 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $124 −$1 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $94 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $231 $0 +0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $45 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $53 −$2 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $34 −$1 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $35 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 10 $56 −$1 -3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $44 −$22 -49%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 09 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $37 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 07 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $54 −$2 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 03 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 03 $54 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $230 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $103 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $240 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $62 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 31 $321 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $97 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $235 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $215 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $48 −$1 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 41m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $16 56m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $56 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $57 7h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 8h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 16h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 16h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 22h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $62 23h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $62 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $19 37h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $63 37h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $63 45h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $47 46h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $48 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $43 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $50 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $14 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $36 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $10 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $53 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.23 · official $59.23 (match) · 468 history records