Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5eeb…b6d9 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
politics 28% $0
other 20% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 6 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 17% -8.4%
≤90d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 12% -9.7%
all 46 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage284d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $74 +$2 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $5 $0 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +17%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $40 −$2 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $4 +$1 +11%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Dec 07 $1 $0 -26%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 20 $11 $0 -1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 19 $24 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 14 $25 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 13 $3 $0 -4%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Oct 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $3 $0 -5%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 11 $7 $0 +3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 28 $8 $0 -2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 27 $4 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 27 $3 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 27 $2 $0 -6%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $2 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 18 $1 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $36 45m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $40 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $40 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $29 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $8 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $35 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 22h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $0 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $4 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $0 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $5 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $38 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $38 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $38 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $38 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $38 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $36 31d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $36 31d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $26 32d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $26 32d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 198d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 198d
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $27 242d
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $13 246d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 91¢ $11 246d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.08 · official $36.08 (match) · 186 history records