Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5E 0x5eeb…3afb other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+12%) realized +$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate80%24W / 6L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$63
world 28% $0
economics 14% +$2
politics 5% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 3% +$2
weather 3% $0
sports 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.0% -8.7% 75% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 0% -9.0%
all 30 +12.5% +1.8% 80% 10% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 10% +1.9%
10% -8.0% 7% -7.8%
15% -16.9% 7% -16.7%
20% -25.0% 3% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×34.15 per $1 lost it wins $34.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses24 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage476d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $42 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $88 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May? Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 10 $88 +$2 +2%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $18 +$62 +342%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 05 $23 $0 +0%
Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator? Apr 05 $3 $0 +3%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Apr 02 $23 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $22 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 31 $19 +$2 +10%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $19 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $19 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha Mar 22 $3 −$2 -55%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 22 $21 $0 -1%
California Baptist vs. Seattle Mar 20 $15 +$6 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $27 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $12 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $39 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $21 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $22 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $42 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $20 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $20 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 33h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $35 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $3 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $38 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 17d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? BUY No 97¢ $1 360d
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election SELL No 97¢ $5 374d
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election BUY No 96¢ $5 376d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.81 · official $42.81 (match) · 97 history records