Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5eec…f4e2 other 213 markets active 14h ago coverage 100d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7,759 (+1%) realized +$7,523 · open +$236
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate90%168W / 19L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$3,400per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$67,098now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 100d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$21,857
politics 33% +$922
other 24% +$33,193
finance 2% +$89
sports 1% +$10
crypto 0% −$12
tech 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -4.8% -13.9% 93% 7% -9.4%
≤30d 37 +3.7% -6.2% 73% 11% -4.4%
≤90d 115 +9.0% -1.4% 84% 10% -0.8%
all 187 +5.9% -4.2% 90% 6% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 6% -1.1%
10% -13.4% 5% -10.5%
15% ← realistic here -21.7% 5% -19.2%
20% -29.4% 5% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,199) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$10 · ×32.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×303.4 per $1 lost it wins $303.4
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$67,098
Realized+$7,523
Unrealized+$236
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses168 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions26
Markets (closed)187 / 213
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$3,400
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $10,886 $10,923 +$38 (+0%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $10,854 $10,906 +$53 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $9,910 $9,925 +$15 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $8,953 $8,946 −$7 (-0%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $7,423 $7,478 +$55 (+1%)
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,965 $2,990 +$24 (+1%)
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,185 $2,185 −$1 (-0%)
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,093 $2,100 +$7 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,986 $1,987 +$1 (+0%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,492 $1,490 −$1 (-0%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $1,474 $1,475 +$1 (+0%)
Will Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,381 $1,394 +$13 (+1%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $1,076 $1,097 +$21 (+2%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 92¢ $940 $924 −$16 (-2%)
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $921 $923 +$2 (+0%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $792 $794 +$2 (+0%)
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $445 $447 +$2 (+1%)
Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $384 $407 +$23 (+6%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $159 $159 +$0 (+0%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $116 $118 +$2 (+2%)
Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $74 $75 +$0 (+1%)
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $64 $65 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morgan Stanley fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will BNY fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 16? Jun 16 $350 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
JD Vance out as VP by June 15? Jun 16 $3,960 +$30 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 15? Jun 15 $743 +$7 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 15? Jun 15 $300 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 14 $413 +$2 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,980 +$4 +0%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$2 +15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 12? Jun 12 $303 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 12? Jun 12 $140 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $273 +$27 +10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? Jun 12 $694 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 10 $85,563 +$66 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $20,134 −$10 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $28,379 +$88 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Jun 06 $488 +$3 +1%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 06 $1,981 +$5 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 05 $1,363 +$4,906 +360%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Jun 05 $9,238 +$7,361 +80%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027? Jun 04 $107 +$74 +69%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1,963 −$31 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $29,797 −$26 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,347 +$237 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,925 +$6 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10,923 +$45 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8? May 31 $187 −$8 -4%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 30 $12,627 +$140 +1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by May 31? May 29 $2,990 +$12 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $518 −$9 -2%
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? May 27 $447 +$1 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $253 +$3 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 16 $290 −$2 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $31,446 +$55 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $2,826 +$32 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 14? May 14 $1,204 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 14? May 14 $1,733 +$17 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 14? May 14 $605 +$39 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 14? May 14 $1,199 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 14? May 14 $2,948 +$12 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $99 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $858 +$17 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $102 +$1 +1%
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? May 11 $427 +$224 +52%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 09 $1,918 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 13h
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,492 15h
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5,123 15h
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $498 26h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $350 29h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 29h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $991 36h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $248 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $495 2d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,120 2d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL No 96¢ $69 2d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 2d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 2d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,765 2d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $402 2d
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $630 2d
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $199 2d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,032 2d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? SELL No 96¢ $46 3d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? SELL No 96¢ $92 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67,098.30 · official $67,098.38 (match) · 3500 history records