Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5eee…f427 world 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$223 (-3%) realized −$220 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate68%76W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$697now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$199
14 days+$154
30 days+$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$397
other 44% +$124
crypto 4% +$12
politics 2% −$12
tech 2% +$3
sports 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 54% -1.7%
≤30d 65 -14.5% -22.6% 58% 32% -6.7%
≤90d 111 -7.6% -16.4% 68% 33% -12.7%
all 111 -7.6% -16.4% 68% 33% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 33% -12.7%
10% -24.4% 13% -21.1%
15% -31.7% 7% -28.7%
20% -38.4% 4% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$29 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$697
Realized−$220
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses76 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)111 / 115
History coverage52d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 +$63 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 27 $1 $0 +16%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $61 −$8 -12%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $62 −$7 -11%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $62 −$6 -10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $164 −$25 -16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$21 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $300 +$4 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $201 +$31 +15%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 21 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $1 $0 +26%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $200 +$7 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +43%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$14 -68%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $209 −$21 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $200 +$13 +7%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 13 $101 −$28 -28%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $101 +$11 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -51%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 1h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 2h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 98¢ $1 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 17h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $87 17h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 37h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 96¢ $121 38h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $118 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 84¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 6d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $232 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $696.82 · official $696.82 (match) · 307 history records