Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5eef…32bf other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-13%) realized −$60 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$66
sports 27% +$1
crypto 6% +$3
world 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -22.6% -30.0% 31% 27% -21.6%
≤30d 51 -22.6% -30.0% 31% 27% -21.6%
≤90d 51 -22.6% -30.0% 31% 27% -21.6%
all 51 -22.6% -30.0% 31% 27% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.0% 27% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -36.7% 24% -29.1%
15% -42.8% 20% -36.0%
20% -48.4% 18% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 35
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)51 / 57
History coverage7d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 38¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+60%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +190%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 +$3 +22%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$7 -36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -52%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +54%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$2 -33%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$5 +30%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 +$4 +23%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$5 -42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -19%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$3 -40%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 +$11 +87%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +117%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$4 -60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$12 -75%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -81%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -35%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$3 -44%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$8 +194%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -81%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$7 -40%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 $0 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -83%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -66%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$11 -92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $13 +$14 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 16h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 16h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 16h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 16h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 16h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 16h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 16h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 16h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $16 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 17h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 18h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 18h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 18h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 19h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 20h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 20h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 22h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.41 · official $22.19 (match) · 157 history records