Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:57:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5E 0x5ef4…94b6 world 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$466per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$10
other 25% $0
crypto 24% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 0% -8.7%
all 3 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$472
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage4d
Avg bet$466
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $472 $472 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $475 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 20 $468 +$10 +2%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun Jun 20 $448 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $472 5m
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $475 2h
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $475 3h
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $478 3d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $468 4d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun SELL No 93¢ $450 4d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun BUY No 92¢ $448 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $472.28 · official $472.28 (match) · 7 history records