Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ef5…343e world 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,054 (-5%) realized −$2,056 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate63%36W / 21L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$709per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$556
7 days−$776
14 days−$3,020
30 days−$1,914
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% −$2,112
other 2% +$69
politics 2% −$19
tech 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -14.0% -22.2% 43% 7% -14.2%
≤30d 31 -17.7% -25.5% 48% 10% -14.5%
≤90d 57 -9.7% -18.3% 63% 16% -13.9%
all 57 -9.7% -18.3% 63% 16% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 16% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 5% -22.2%
15% -33.3% 2% -29.7%
20% -39.8% 2% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$724) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$234 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized−$2,056
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses36 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage53d
Avg bet$709
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $188 $186 −$2 (-1%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 55¢ $106 $110 +$4 (+4%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 80¢ 86¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $1,021 +$103 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $1,734 +$168 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $2,734 −$244 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $204 +$4 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,791 −$587 -33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $635 +$13 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $459 −$17 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,513 +$392 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $948 −$293 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $262 −$54 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $230 −$77 -34%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $2,141 −$180 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $236 +$7 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $296 +$8 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $104 +$8 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $306 +$19 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $186 −$28 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $134 −$56 -42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $112 −$34 -30%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $655 −$618 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3,274 −$1,571 -48%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $570 +$28 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $430 +$45 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $3,155 +$95 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5,864 +$474 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2,716 +$568 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,212 +$413 +34%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 26 $301 −$230 -76%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 26 $294 −$191 -65%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 24 $88 −$70 -80%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May? May 14 $88 +$6 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 14 $960 +$57 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 13 $1,193 +$22 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 11 $157 +$131 +83%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $180 +$16 +9%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? May 06 $133 +$10 +8%
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? May 06 $110 +$9 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $474 +$49 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 06 $68 −$2 -3%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 06 $126 +$28 +22%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 06 $148 +$30 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 06 $402 +$13 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $382 +$57 +15%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 04 $155 +$7 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 04 $45 −$21 -47%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 04 $207 −$35 -17%
Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 4–May 10 May 02 $32 +$9 +27%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 02 $425 −$425 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 01 $75 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $105 6m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $1 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $188 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 98¢ $88 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $115 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $74 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $285 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 91¢ $64 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 91¢ $47 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $158 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $940 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $79 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $455 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $455 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $24 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $97 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $63 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $161 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $263 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $187 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $26 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $5 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $105 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $58 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $5 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $142 38h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $2 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.64 · official $297.64 (match) · 967 history records