Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ef5…2425 crypto 1202 markets active 3d ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$246 (+5%) realized +$246 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%533W / 669L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day81.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$72
14 days−$65
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -29.6% -36.3% 35% 35% -24.2%
≤30d 1202 -0.6% -10.1% 44% 44% -8.0%
≤90d 1202 -0.6% -10.1% 44% 44% -8.0%
all 1202 -0.6% -10.1% 44% 44% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 44% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 44% -16.8%
15% -26.5% 44% -24.8%
20% -33.7% 44% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses533 / 669
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1202 / 1202
History coverage20d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day81.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1202 Trades
no open positions (309 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$6 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$5 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.00 · official $18.00 (match) · 2147 history records