Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:08:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5E 0x5ef7…647b crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$173
other 24% −$281
sports 17% +$179
weather 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -23.8% -31.0% 33% 33% -27.3%
≤30d 36 -23.8% -31.0% 33% 33% -27.3%
≤90d 36 -23.8% -31.0% 33% 33% -27.3%
all 36 -23.8% -31.0% 33% 33% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.0% 33% -27.3%
10% ← realistic here -37.6% 33% -34.2%
15% -43.7% 33% -40.6%
20% -49.2% 31% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$35 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage2d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $40 −$38 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $136 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$81 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $113 +$84 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$22 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$25 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 +$11 +62%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $100 −$94 -94%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $31 +$17 +55%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $92 +$242 +262%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $79 −$29 -37%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 40¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $53 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records