Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:04:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5E 0x5efe…ef56 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$6 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$3
weather 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +69.4% +53.3% 100% 100% +53.3%
≤30d 1 +69.4% +53.3% 100% 100% +53.3%
≤90d 1 +69.4% +53.3% 100% 100% +53.3%
all 1 +69.4% +53.3% 100% 100% +53.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +53.3% 100% +53.3%
10% +38.6% 100% +38.6%
15% +25.2% 100% +25.2%
20% +13.0% 100% +13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $429 $428 −$2 (-0%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $79 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? No 79¢ 100¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 +$4 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $0 42m
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $0 46m
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $80 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $347 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 79¢ $16 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $86 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $527.47 · official $527.47 (match) · 10 history records