Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:34:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5f02…c78f
weather · 227 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$63 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$312
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses167 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions13
Markets (closed)214 / 227
History coverage82d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 13 History 214 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$346
7 days+$541
14 days+$583
30 days+$698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $23 $42 +$19 (+84%)
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $36 $25 −$11 (-31%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 94¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 62¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 99¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+16%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 66¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-60%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Magic vs. 76ers Magic 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $411 +$35 +8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $865 +$79 +9%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $110 −$46 -42%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $200 +$16 +8%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $372 −$20 -5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $149 +$13 +9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $103 +$24 +23%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $276 +$24 +9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $353 −$125 -36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $176 −$175 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $608 +$82 +14%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $466 +$431 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $88 +$2 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $11 +$4 +32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $380 +$160 +42%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $289 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $173 +$5 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $129 −$91 -71%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $44 −$4 -8%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $542 +$45 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $227 +$9 +4%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $276 +$14 +5%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $144 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $169 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $93 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $133 +$2 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $240 −$90 -37%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $48 −$30 -62%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $98 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $268 +$13 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $374 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $665 +$6 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $200 +$5 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $233 +$28 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $463 +$16 +4%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $8 +$1 +16%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $33 −$4 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $513 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $270 +$5 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $19 −$2 -9%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $221 +$40 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $258 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $309 +$10 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 58% −$562
sports 17% +$404
other 12% +$146
finance 7% −$51
world 5% +$5
politics 2% +$3
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $74 1h
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $37 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $20 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $42 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 88¢ $18 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $45 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 6h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $217 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 7h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $354 7h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $27 7h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $91 7h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $82 7h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 8h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 96¢ $58 8h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 97¢ $194 8h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 97¢ $22 8h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 8h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $271 8h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 96¢ $53 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.9% -10.3% 74% 22% -1.4%
≤30d 91 +0.1% -9.4% 79% 16% -5.4%
≤90d 214 -2.9% -12.1% 78% 11% -9.6%
all 214 -2.9% -12.1% 78% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 11% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 7% -18.2%
15% -28.2% 4% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.91 · official $311.91 (match) · 2015 history records