Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f02…c123 crypto 863 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (452 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5,745 (+2%) realized +$5,803 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%835W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day451.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,851
other 0% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (452 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 860 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 860 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 860 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 0% -10.2%
all 860 -1.0% -10.4% 97% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover451.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 0% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$260 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$366
Realized+$5,803
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses835 / 25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)860 / 863
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$281
Trades / day451.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 860 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $294 $298 +$4 (+2%)
Hamza Abdelkarim: 5+ shots No 97¢ 50¢ $97 $50 −$46 (-48%)
Nicolas Raskin: 4+ shots No 97¢ 50¢ $32 $17 −$16 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $270 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $294 −$294 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $294 −$294 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $294 −$294 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $294 −$294 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $294 −$294 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $225 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $158 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $294 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $60 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $47 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $294 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $294 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $294 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $167 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $55 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $294 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $169 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $294 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $294 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.84 · official $365.84 (match) · 3500 history records