Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5F 0x5f05…7e5d other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$322 (+7%) realized +$344 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%57W / 52L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$644now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$316
14 days+$363
30 days+$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$191
sports 14% +$251
politics 4% −$5
world 4% −$129
crypto 2% +$6
economics 2% +$16
tech 2% +$7
finance 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +12.0% +1.4% 45% 43% +1.7%
≤30d 64 +11.7% +1.0% 45% 44% -0.2%
≤90d 70 +7.4% -2.8% 46% 43% -0.7%
all 109 -1.0% -10.4% 52% 39% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 39% -2.0%
10% -19.0% 33% -11.4%
15% -26.8% 27% -20.0%
20% -34.0% 18% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$22 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$644
Realized+$344
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses57 / 52
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions13
Markets (closed)109 / 122
History coverage592d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? No 75¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? No 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 20¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-63%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 54¢ 2¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 −$51 -25%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$104 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 +$40 +20%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $69 +$30 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$58 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$37 +46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $20 +$30 +145%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $16 −$8 -48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$42 +52%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$24 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$38 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$8 -38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$74 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$35 +34%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$45 +442%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $101 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 72¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 49¢ $151 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $69 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $81 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 26h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $81 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $81 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $644.14 · official $644.15 (match) · 227 history records