Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:03:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f07…9d0f sports 561 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,616 (-0%) realized −$1,926 · open +$310
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%280W / 280L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$698per market
Trades / day47.3pace
Fees−$4,968est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$30,794
other 5% +$1,531
crypto 3% −$1,507
world 3% +$550
finance 0% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +25.7% +13.7% 63% 60% -8.0%
≤30d 208 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 46% -22.2%
≤90d 560 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 47% -16.6%
all 560 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 47% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 47% -16.6%
10% -19.9% 44% -24.6%
15% ← realistic here -27.6% 38% -31.9%
20% -34.7% 32% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$674) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$305 vs −$415 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$1,450
Realized−$1,926
Unrealized+$310
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses280 / 280
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$4,968
Open positions1
Markets (closed)560 / 561
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$698
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 560 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Toby Samuel 57¢ 72¢ $1,140 $1,450 +$310 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $2,371 +$729 +31%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $597 −$353 -59%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $144 +$106 +74%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 25 $1,430 −$1,425 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $215 −$74 -34%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $1,339 +$21 +2%
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $285 +$215 +75%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $1,115 +$885 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $520 −$520 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 25 $400 +$200 +50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,014 −$583 -29%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Emiliana Arango Jun 24 $374 +$206 +55%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $229 −$225 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Murphy Cassone vs Ethan Quinn Jun 24 $2,927 +$673 +23%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $279 +$221 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $254 −$250 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $1,108 +$992 +90%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $295 +$267 +91%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $3,399 −$3,366 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $204 +$298 +146%
Struff vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 23 $30 +$22 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $200 +$100 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $57 +$43 +76%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $93 −$92 -98%
Struff vs. Landaluce: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $264 +$236 +89%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $1,035 +$965 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $178 +$259 +146%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $922 −$24 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $521 +$1,040 +200%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $701 −$183 -26%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $448 +$251 +56%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $1,026 +$665 +65%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $1,719 −$1,692 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $279 −$159 -57%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $1,911 −$984 -52%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $65 +$135 +206%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $1,240 −$1,227 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $370 +$730 +197%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $136 −$2 -1%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $2,174 −$2,145 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $400 −$224 -56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,580 +$160 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $195 −$190 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $1,992 +$406 +20%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $674 −$674 -100%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $1,040 −$413 -40%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $2,252 −$1,157 -51%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $812 +$188 +23%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $1,511 −$1,495 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 57¢ $1,155 0m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 21¢ $501 17m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 21¢ $4 17m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 21¢ $1 17m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 21¢ $459 17m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 21¢ $1 17m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 21¢ $1 17m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 21¢ $8 17m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 40¢ $1,914 31m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 24¢ $586 45m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 63¢ $1,592 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 76¢ $2,371 12h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 25¢ $244 12h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 59¢ $597 12h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $250 14h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $404 15h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $144 16h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 36¢ $141 17h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 53¢ $215 18h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $1,026 19h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 37¢ $75 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 56¢ $57 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 56¢ $227 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Caty McNally 42¢ $660 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Caty McNally 49¢ $98 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Caty McNally 63¢ $882 22h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 57¢ $272 24h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 57¢ $7 24h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 57¢ $7 24h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $461 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,450.00 · official $1,450.00 (match) · 3500 history records