Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5F 0x5f07…047e other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$9
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$4
politics 23% −$7
sports 7% +$9
economics 5% −$2
world 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.7% +5.6% 17% 17% -8.7%
≤30d 21 +4.7% -5.3% 10% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 101 +3.3% -6.6% 12% 9% -9.5%
all 108 +3.1% -6.8% 12% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 8% -9.5%
10% -15.7% 8% -18.2%
15% -23.8% 8% -26.1%
20% -31.3% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage96d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $160 $161 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $310 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 +$11 +101%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $310 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $316 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 31 $306 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 30 $143 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $297 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $267 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $267 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $246 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $268 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $499 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $268 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $262 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $506 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $271 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $262 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $249 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $249 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $261 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $260 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $274 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $265 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $267 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $275 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $250 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $270 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $490 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $258 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 3h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $11 4d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $160 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 10d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 10d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 10d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $56 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $56 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 16d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 16d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 17d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.51 · official $220.51 (match) · 331 history records