Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f07…434c other 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 236L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$31
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$44
sports 22% −$22
politics 9% −$7
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
world 5% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)249 / 250
History coverage134d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $259 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $391 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $299 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $336 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $353 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $240 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $287 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $193 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $674 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $456 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $137 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $253 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $294 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $587 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $273 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $373 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $163 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $281 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $148 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $537 −$2 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $83 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $56 2h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 7h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 9h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 11h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 13h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 14h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 16h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $42 17h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $42 19h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $56 21h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $57 22h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 24h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 26h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $57 30h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $57 31h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 39h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 41h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $57 43h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $57 45h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 45h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 47h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.80 · official $55.80 (match) · 1392 history records