Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:08:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f07…743b sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,077 (-8%) realized −$1,072 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 38L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$60
14 days+$40
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$194
crypto 9% −$749
world 2% −$243
other 2% −$102
tech 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 26% 26% -1.5%
≤30d 25 -8.7% -17.4% 24% 24% -16.3%
≤90d 29 -18.0% -25.9% 21% 21% -41.0%
all 59 -21.1% -28.6% 36% 27% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 27% -20.2%
10% -35.5% 25% -27.8%
15% -41.7% 22% -34.8%
20% -47.4% 19% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$100 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$1,072
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions8
Markets (closed)59 / 67
History coverage520d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$85 +276%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$97 +474%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$119 +291%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$97 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$133 +325%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$16 +78%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 18 $81 −$2 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $206 −$206 -100%
Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 233.5 Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Mar 27 $143 −$143 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 10 $136 −$68 -50%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 10 $153 −$25 -16%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 10 $88 +$52 +59%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $568 +$332 +58%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $582 +$598 +103%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $72 +$28 +39%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $94 +$56 +59%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $115 +$37 +32%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 02 $37 +$27 +73%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 02 $71 +$6 +9%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 02 $494 +$226 +46%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 01 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 01 $192 −$74 -38%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $104 −$44 -42%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Nov 01 $446 +$53 +12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Nov 01 $180 −$119 -66%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $612 +$177 +29%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Oct 31 $150 −$50 -33%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Oct 30 $232 −$232 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 30 $479 −$299 -62%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 Winner Oct 29 $96 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $37 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.06 · official $225.06 (match) · 277 history records