Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f08…1215 crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$143 (-9%) realized −$139 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%44W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$178
politics 12% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 52% -19.5%
≤30d 77 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 52% -19.5%
≤90d 77 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 52% -19.5%
all 77 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 52% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 52% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 40% -27.2%
15% -30.1% 25% -34.2%
20% -37.0% 19% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$139
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses44 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 41¢ 30¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $93 −$30 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $103 −$45 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $119 −$53 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$16 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$17 +166%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $174 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $15 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.16 · official $20.67 · 183 history records